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How to Find Strong Medical Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises
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Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Amgen?
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $4.07 a share 21 days away from its upcoming earnings release on February 6, 2023.
AMGN has an Earnings ESP figure of +1.06%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $4.07 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.02. Amgen is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
AMGN is just one of a large group of Medical stocks with a positive ESP figure. Hologic (HOLX - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Hologic, which is readying to report earnings on February 1, 2023, sits at a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.91 a share, and HOLX is 16 days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hologic is $0.88, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +3.13%.
AMGN and HOLX's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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How to Find Strong Medical Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises
Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.
The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a #3 (Hold) ranking, which is most stocks covered at 60%, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. But stocks that fall into the #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) ranking, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market. Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Amgen?
The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Amgen (AMGN - Free Report) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $4.07 a share 21 days away from its upcoming earnings release on February 6, 2023.
AMGN has an Earnings ESP figure of +1.06%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $4.07 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.02. Amgen is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
AMGN is just one of a large group of Medical stocks with a positive ESP figure. Hologic (HOLX - Free Report) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Hologic, which is readying to report earnings on February 1, 2023, sits at a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) right now. It's Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.91 a share, and HOLX is 16 days out from its next earnings report.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hologic is $0.88, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of +3.13%.
AMGN and HOLX's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>